Best Win Total Over/Under Bets for 2020-21 NBA Season

Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum vs Clippers

Will the Blazers hit the over on their preseason win total? Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire.
  • The 2020-21 NBA season tips off on December 22nd
  • In a year with uncertainty over injuries and COVID-19, team win totals are particularly fascinating
  • Which teams present the best win total over/under bets? See some of our best bets below

The 2020-21 NBA season gets underway on Tuesday, December 22nd. After the shortest offseason in league history, the NBA is back, and it’s back for a season that is littered with uncertainty beyond the reigning champion Los Angeles Lakers.

So many contenders, owning high NBA win totals, face substantial questions. Several are looking to break through towards contention, creating intense battles for the lower postseason seedings. While NBA fans are constructing preseason power rankings, there will inevitably be teams that overachieve and others that underwhelm. It’s never how it seems in the NBA – some teams attracting a lot of excitement will fall short.

Here are five teams which look good value to hit the over or under on their preseason win totals.

Atlanta Hawks 2020-21 NBA Season Win Total Odds

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 35.5 -122
Under 35.5 +100

All odds taken on Dec 21st from FanDuel

No team was as busy this offseason as the Atlanta Hawks in their quest to build a competitive team around Trae Young. Atlanta was 20-47 last season, so far off the pace they were not invited to the NBA bubble. An offseason of veteran acquisition followed, with the Hawks landing Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari. Onyeka Okongwu was drafted too, giving them another big to complement Clint Capela and John Collins.

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They have the makings of a great team to watch. Young is a one-man highlight reel, and they’ve surrounded him with shooting. The Hawks could be a top-10 offense after ranking 26th on that end last year, but the defense is a real concern. Atlanta is very short on plus defenders, and two players with potential on that end – Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter – will see their minutes cut after the signings of Bogdanovic and Gallinari.

Atlanta is going to be a League Pass favorite. Being entertaining doesn’t necessarily equate to wins, though. The East is deeper than in recent years, and the Hawks are a good bet for the under.

Pick: Under 35.5 wins (+100)

Indiana Pacers 2020-21 NBA Season Win Total Odds

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 38.5 -110
Under 38.5 -110

The Pacers have widely been tabbed as a team to drop off in 2021. Of the group of contenders in the East, it’s Indiana who are considered the most likely to fall into the play-in. Perhaps that’s fair – the Pacers don’t have the same top tier talent as Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, Miami or Brooklyn. Indiana’s track record should not be forgotten about, however, as they have finished in the top five in each of the last three seasons.

This is a team and organization that wins a lot of regular season games. The level of Victor Oladipo’s play will determine their ceiling, but they were a very good team without Oladipo in 2019-20. The Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis conundrum remains, and there’s uncertainty over TJ Warren’s availability.

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It’s easy to see where the Pacers pessimism has originated. On the back of another disappointing playoff performance, and a quiet offseason, Indiana is getting underrated. This is still a strong roster (for the regular season, at least).

Pick: Over 38.5 wins (-110)

Portland Trail Blazers 2020-21 NBA Season Win Total Odds

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 39.5 -150
Under 39.5 +122

Portland got better this offseason. Don’t be fooled by their eight-seed standing last season – this is a team capable of challenging for a top four spot in the Western Conference. Damian Lillard is rightly in the MVP race, and while they are unlikely to be better than average defensively, they will improve on that end after trading for Robert Covington. Portland was 28th in defensive rating in 2019-20 and third in offense.

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The Blazers won 49 in 2017-18 and 53 in 2018-19. Perform at that pace in 2020-21 and they will hit the over – is there anything to suggest this team is weaker than those previous incarnations?

Like with every team, health is an important factor. An injury to Lillard, CJ McCollum or Jusuf Nurkic will derail their season. With them all healthy, though, Portland should be in that group challenging for the four seed in the West. Even at -150, the over is the obvious bet.

Pick: Over 39.5 wins (-150)

2021 NBA Championship Odds Tracker

Toronto Raptors 2020-21 NBA Season Win Total Odds

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 42.5 -110
Under 42.5 -110

Toronto was 53-19 last season. They got worse this offseason, losing Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, but there’s room for improvement on this roster. Pascal Siakam can become a more-rounded offensive player. Fred VanVleet can take over more of the offense. OG Anunoby is a serious candidate for Most Improved Player as he could become one of the better two-way players in the NBA.

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The Raps win total is understandable. While they were undoubtedly brilliant in the regular season last year, a repeat performance is perceived to be unlikely with the East getting stronger and losing two key veterans.

It depends on what faith we have in Toronto to continue to develop players, and how their offense will function in the absence of Gasol and Ibaka.

They aren’t going to come out of the East, but Toronto could once again overachieve in the regular season. The Raptors have hit the over in every season since Masai Ujiri arrived – that streak is good value to continue.

Pick: Over 42.5 wins (-110)

Los Angeles Clippers 2020-21 NBA Season Win Total Odds

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 47.5 +116
Under 47.5 -142

The narrative paints a very different picture from the cold reality for these Clippers. They were 49-23 last season. While the chemistry issues are unquestionably real, and there was a lack of playmaking on the roster (which has not been sufficiently addressed), they are still stacked with talent.

With a congested schedule, though, evaluating their win total is as much about player availability as it is fit and chemistry.

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Kawhi Leonard isn’t going to play more than 55 games. Maybe the same is true for Paul George. While Ibaka is a nice addition for them, and a better fit, he doesn’t bring the scoring punch that Montrezl Harrell provided when the stars were load managing.

The Clippers became a better playoff team this offseason. Their regular season record might take a small hit as a result.

Pick: Under 47.5 wins (-142)

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