Florida vs Arkansas Picks and Odds

Justin Smith arms spread out

Arkansas forward Justin Smith against Mississippi during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2021, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
  • The Florida Gators (10-5, 6-4 SEC) battle it out with the Arkansas Razorbacks (16-5, 8-4 SEC) on Tuesday, February 16th
  • The Gators are taking the floor for the first time since February 3rd after having their last three games postponed
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet below

Two of the top five teams in the SEC will get together Tuesday night when the Florida Gators take on the Arkansas Razorbacks at the Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

The Gators haven’t played in almost two weeks due to COVID complications. The last time they saw action was on February 3rd in a 72-66 loss to South Carolina in Gainesville.

Arkansas is coming into this one hot after winning their last six SEC games. Their latest victim was the Missouri Tigers who they beat 86-81 on Saturday.

This series has been owned by the Gators who have won and covered five of the last six meetings, including a 73-59 shellacking last February. Even with the history, Arkansas is favored by 3.5-points in this meeting.

Florida vs Arkansas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Florida Gators +3.5 (-110) +142 Over 150 (-110)
Arkansas Razorbacks -3.5 (-110) -168 Under 150 (-110)

Odds as of Feb 15th at FanDuel.

Florida Looking to Rebound

Many in the college basketball world wrote off the Florida Gators when they lost star Keyontae Johnson back in December. They answered the bell and rebounded nicely with huge wins over Tennessee (ranked 6th at the time) and West Virginia (ranked 11th). The Gators will have to show the same resolve and rebound after a puzzling loss to South Carolina in their last game.

This one was a game that the Gators really should have won as they led 65-59 with 6:37 left to play. They couldn’t buy a bucket on the offensive side and were victimized by Keyshawn Bryant, who scored six points in a final 13-1 run to close the game.

All six points were right at the basket — a noticeable issue all night, as the Gamecocks outscored the Gators 50-30 in the paint for the game. Tre Mann led the way for the Gators with 17 points and eight boards in the losing effort.

Arkansas a Dangerous Team

The Razorbacks are starting to turn a few heads as they have now won six straight conference games. They are currently seventh in the nation in points per game, pouring in 82.8 per contest. They needed every bit of that offense in their 86-81 overtime victory over No. 10 Missouri on Saturday in Columbia.

This one didn’t exactly go as planned for the Razorbacks as they trailed at halftime 35-31. However, they took the lead in the first two minutes of the second half. They actually could have won in regulation had they scored more than four points in the final 2:54. Justin Smith’s 19 paced a balanced Arkansas attack, as four players scored in double-digits.

Best Betting Angle

This one will come down to whether or not Florida is rusty after their most recent layoff. Their offense was operating on all cylinders leading up to the head scratching loss to South Carolina so there is hope. The issue in this one could be the pace at which the Razorbacks operate.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

So far this season, only 25 teams play at a faster pace than Arkansas. The Gators have played three of those teams (Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina) and gave up elevated point totals in two of the three games. They gave up 84 to Georgia and 86 to Alabama, a tick more than each team averages on the season.

The Gators are not slouches offensively, averaging 76 points per game in their last three. If the Razorbacks can force Florida into an up-and-down game, both teams could score in the 80’s. Even if it’s not a track meet, both teams shoot at least 73% from the free throw line. The spread is only 3.5 so it’s likely to stay close enough for a free throw contest to break out in the last couple of minutes, causing this one to go over the posted total.

The pick: Over 150 (-110)

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