Leeds v Everton
Wednesday 3 February, 19:30
Live on BT Sport
Leeds looking for consistency following two good wins
Leeds made it back-to-back Premier League wins for the third time this season, but they have as yet been able to make it three.
There is no denying it, Macelo Bielsa’s men were very impressive at the King Power on Sunday, even if the hosts were without Jamie Vardy.
Rodrigo limped off early on against the Foxes, so he is obviously a massive doubt for the match at Elland Road on Wednesday, but the manager has played down injuries to Raphinha and Patrick Bamford – the latter starred again on Sunday, picking up his 11th goal and sixth and seventh assist of the campaign.
Toffees need to shake off poor performance
While Leeds were enjoying a fabulous weekend, the same can’t be said for Everton. Carlo Ancelotti’s men were beaten by a Newcastle team that hadn’t won since December 12, and had lost their last six in all competitions.
The Toffees are down to eighth in the table, but they do have games in hand over the teams above them, so a couple of wins will see them right back on track.
Ancelotti isn’t the kind of manager to panic, so despite their poor performance on Saturday, I can’t see the Italian ringing the changes. Given the fact that he only fielded eight out of 10 subs against the Magpies, he doesn’t have many options available to him anyway.
The hosts are the marginal favourites on the Betfair Exchange, but it is a pretty tight market. They are trading at around the 2.68/5 mark, with Everton available to back at 2.8615/8. The draw is 3.7511/4
Based on most recent performances, the favourites appear to be a good bet, but I have my doubts. As already alluded to, Leeds have been anything but consistent since their promotion.
They won 3-0 at Aston Villa in October and then lost their next two matches 4-1 – against Leicester and Crystal Palace. They actually beat Everton at Goodison in November, but then lost to Chelsea and West Ham. A 5-2 victory over Newcastle was then followed by a 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford. More recently, Bielsa’s side won 5-0 at West Brom and then lost to Spurs and Brighton.
The visitors have only been beaten twice on the road this term, and in their last five, they have won four and drawn one. Only Manchester United and Leicester have recorded more away victories, and Everton have had fewer chances.
There should be goals in this game, which makes the draw less likely, so I am going to take a bit of the 2.8615/8 about the Toffees.
As just mentioned above, I am expecting goals at Elland Road on Wednesday, but the odds are a touched cramped for Over 2.5 at 1.684/6.
Going one higher could be the best option, as you can get Over 3.5 at around 2.77/4. Leeds are seeing their matches average 3.55 goals each time this season, and nine of their 20 have seen this selection land.
The stats aren’t too discouraging for Everton, as their games have an average of 2.79 goals per 90 minutes, although it is worth noting that only five of their 19 have had four or more.
Hopefully we will get an early goal and we will be in a good position with this bet.