The Atlanta Hawks (5-7) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-8) Monday at State Farm Arena. The Martin Luther King Day tip-off is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Timberwolves-Hawks NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Minnesota has lost four of its past five (3-2 against the spread), including a 118-107 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday. The Timberwolves were outscored 38-17 in the fourth quarter to blow the game and their biggest issue surfaced again—interior defense. Minnesota was outscored in the paint 80-44 by Memphis and is allowing the most points in the paint in the league.
The Hawks also dropped their last game—a 112-106 loss at the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday—and have lost six of their last seven (straight-up and ATS). It was another poor shooting night for a Hawks team that is second-to-last in field-goal percentage and 23rd in effective field-goal percentage. Atlanta was 6-for-30 from behind the arc against Portland and PG Trae Young was 30.4% from the field and made no 3’s in the second half.
These teams split last season’s series (straight-up and ATS) with the road team each winning a game. The Hawks are 3-1 straight-up and ATS vs. the Timberwolves since drafting Young in 2018.
Timberwolves at Hawks: Betting odds, spread and lines
Timberwolves at Hawks: Key Injuries
PF Juancho Hernangomez (COVID-19 health and safety protocols) out
F/G Josh Okogie (hamstring) probable
G Ricky Rubio (COVID-19 health and safety protocols) out
C Karl-Anthony Towns (COVID-19 health and safety protocols) out
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
SF Danilo Gallinari (ankle) doubtful
SG Cam Reddish (knee) questionable
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Timberwolves at Hawks: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Timberwolves 116, Hawks 111
Money line (ML)
Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams in the league, and the biggest weakness of the Timberwolves—interior defense—the Hawks probably won’t be able to exploit. The Hawks are middle of the pack in drives per game and last in field-goal percentage on drives.
Also, Minnesota’s backcourt—PG D’Angelo Russell and SG Malik Beasley—are both averaging 20-plus points per game and I give the Timberwolves the edge on the perimeter. It’s more of lean because I like Minnesota plus points, but let’s put a tiny wager on TIMBERWOLVES (+260).
Against the spread (ATS)
To be honest, it’s hard to make a pro-Timberwolves case, but I’m looking to fade the Hawks as much as possible. I get Atlanta has a plus net rating and Minnesota has the worst net rating, but the Timberwolves have played the third-toughest schedule so far and the Hawks just 15th.
Furthermore, the Hawks have been a bad bet at home this season and are just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite. Atlanta isn’t a tough environment pre-COVID and the Timberwolves beat the Hawks on their home floor last season.
GIMME TIMBERWOLVES +7.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
I lean UNDER 229.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because Atlanta has a 2-10 O/U record and its opponents have the third-lowest effective field-goal percentage. However, since both teams are so inconsistent, the Over has cashed in five straight Timberwolves-Hawks games and I have a stronger grasp of the sides, I wouldn’t wager much on the total.
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