Nuggets vs Mavericks: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – January 25, 2021

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (8-8) are underdogs against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (9-7) Monday, January 25, 2021 at American Airlines Center. The matchup begins at 8:30 PM ET on FS-SW. The over/under in the matchup is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect data from FanDuel sportsbook as of January 25, 2021, 1:07 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Mavericks Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of January 25

Nuggets:
Greg Whittington: Out (Knee)

Mavericks:
Dorian Finney-Smith: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (Injury Recovery),
Josh Richardson: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Dwight Powell: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Maxi Kleber: Out (Health and Safety Protocols)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Mavericks (+1.5)
Total Pick Over (222.5)
Prediction Mavericks 113, Nuggets 112

The model has the Mavericks as 0.6-point favorites in this one despite the opposite prediction from FanDuel. However, the margin between the two lines is only 2.1 points.

In this game, the model projects a total (224.2 points) marginally higher than the FanDuel over/under (222.5 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 16 25.8 12.1 9.6 1.9 0.6 1.1
Jamal Murray 15 19.5 3.9 4.4 1.1 0.3 2.1
Michael Porter Jr. 6 16.5 7.3 1.5 1.0 1.2 2.5
Monte Morris 16 11.8 2.4 3.1 0.8 0.3 1.3
Will Barton 16 11.1 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.6 1.4

Nuggets Player Props

  • Jokic’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 39.5, 7.9 less than his season average of 47.4.
  • Michael Porter Jr.’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 1.0 shot lower than his season average of 2.5.
  • Porter’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 0.5, 0.7 blocks lower than his season average of 1.2.

Mavericks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Luka Doncic 15 26.7 9.7 9.5 0.8 0.7 2.0
Kristaps Porzingis 6 20.3 8.7 1.2 0.2 1.8 2.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 15 17.4 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 3.2
Josh Richardson 8 13.8 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 2.0
Jalen Brunson 12 12.2 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 1.1

Mavericks Player Props

  • Doncic’s rebounding prop total for the game is posted at 12.5 rebounds, 2.8 rebounds higher than his season average of 9.7.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr.’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 4.5, 1.3 shots greater than his season average of 3.2.
  • Kristaps Porzingis’ blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.7 blocks higher than his season average of 1.8.

Shooting Trends

  • The Nuggets make 47.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the Mavericks have allowed to their opponents (45.5%).
  • Denver is 5-7 against the spread and 7-5 overall when it shoots better than 45.5% from the field.
  • Dallas has a 9-1 record against the spread and an 8-2 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 47.8% of their shots from the field.
  • The Mavericks have shot at a 45.5% clip from the field this season, two percentage points less than the 47.5% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
  • Dallas has put together a 6-1 record against the spread and a 6-1 straight up record in games it shoots over 47.5% from the field.
  • Denver is 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.5% from the field.
  • The Nuggets are making 36.9% of their three-point shots this season, 3.2% higher than the 33.7% the Mavericks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Denver is 4-6 against the spread and 5-5 overall when it shoots better than 33.7% from distance.
  • Dallas is 6-4 against the spread while putting together a 6-4 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 36.9% from downtown.
  • The Mavericks’ three-point shooting percentage this season (33.1%) is just 4.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Nuggets are averaging (37.7%).
  • Dallas is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 overall when the team hits more than 37.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver is 4-3 ATS and 6-1 overall in games it shoots above 33.1% from deep.
  • The Nuggets’ 12.7 made three-pointers per game this season are only 0.5 more made shots on average than the 12.2 per game the Mavericks allow.
  • Denver has gone 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Dallas hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 straight up.
  • The Mavericks make the 20th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Nuggets give up the 25th-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

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Nuggets vs Mavericks Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Mavericks AVG Mavericks Rank
4th 116.8 Points Scored 109.4 20th
20th 112.6 Points Allowed 109.4 10th
8th 45.4 Rebounds 44.1 19th
4th 11.4 Off. Rebounds 8.8 22nd
15th 12.7 3pt Made 12.2 20th
2nd 27.2 Assists 22.2 27th
12th 13.6 Turnovers 11.9 3rd

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