Odds to Be Next Governor of California Favor Chamath Palihapitiya Over Gavin Newsom

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaking at a podium

California Gov. Gavin Newsom outlines his 2021-2022 state budget proposal during a news conference in Sacramento, Calif. Law enforcement officials are investigating escalating threats of death and violence against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, his family and the the wineries, shops and other businesses he founded. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, Pool, File)
  • Former Facebook senior executive Chamath Palihapitiya is the even-money favorite to be the next Governor of California
  • Incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom is the +105 second-favorite
  • Palihapitiya is championing the cause to have Newsom recalled as California Governor

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before – there’s a movement afoot to have the Governor of California recalled. Some Californians are clearly unhappy with the performance of Gov. Gavin Newsom during the state’s COVID-19 outbreak.

That’s led to a recall Newsom movement. The man who is fervently attaching his name to this process is billionaire entrepreneur Chamath Palihapitiya. Even though Palihapitiya hasn’t officially declared for the position, he’s already launched a Palihapitiya for Governor website.

Apparently, his campaign is already resonating with oddsmakers. Palihapitiya is listed as the even-money favorite to be the next Governor of California. Newsom is a close second at +105.

Odds to Be Next Governor of California

Candidate Odds
Chamath Palihapitiya EVEN
Gavin Newsom +105
Dakota K Vaughn +1600
Daniel Mercuri +1600
Errol Webber +1600
Major Williams +1600
Mike Grover Coltharp +1600
Nickolas Wildstar +1600
Patrick Barnes +1600

Odds as of Feb. 1st.

For a recall to happen, 1.5 million valid signatures must be gathered by March 17th. Otherwise, the next time voters in the state get to choose a new governor would be at the polls in 2022.

Governing Through Change

Along with a pandemic, Newsom is also overseeing dramatic change in the faces who govern California. He recently appointed Alex Padilla to replace Vice-President Kamala Harris as the state’s junior Senator.

This move won approval from the Hispanic community. African Americans felt that Newsome should’ve been replacing Harris with another African-American woman.

Newsom also appointed Shirley Weber to fill Padilla’s previous role as California’s secretary of state. He’ll also be needing a replacement for state Attorney-General Xavier Becerra. He’s President Joe Biden’s selection to be the head of the US Department of Health and Human Services.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Palihapitiya’s Promises

Palihapitiya was a senior executive at Facebook until 2011. He’s given much of the credit for the explosive growth of the social media platform. He’s also a minority owner of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors. Palihapitiya was born in Sri Lanka and raised in Canada.

He talks like a Democrat. Palihapitiya preaches the value of the social safety net. He suggests teachers deserve raises. He’s making promises like a Republican. Palihapitiya is in favor of a 0% state tax. That would be great for billionaires like himself.

It’s straight out of the Donald Trump playbook. Convince the common people you’re on their side. Meanwhile, create policies that are enriching yourself and your friends and family.

Could A Recall Really Happen?

Powerful Democrats in the state appear to be turning on Newsom due to his perceived bungling of California’s pandemic response. Union leaders are critical of his handling of COVID-19 vaccine distribution to essential workers. Municipal politicians complain that Newsom’s government isn’t listening to their concerns.

However, it’s true that the majority of recall backers are Republicans – some of the same people responsible for organizing te 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis are also involved this time around

Davis is the only California Governor since World War II who hasn’t served two terms in office.

If Newsom loses support of his base, he’s in real trouble. At this point, that still seems unlikely. The latest count, taken in early January, was showing just 410,087 verified signatures backing a recall. Newsom was polling at 58% favorable in his most recent approval rating.

With Harris likely blocking his path to the White House, staying in his current role is Newsom’s best political option.

Pick: Gavin Newsom (+105)

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