Last Pick: Seahawks -3 – W
Pick: Oklahoma State ML at TCU, 12:00 pm ET (-108)
What’s good my little bubbies? It’s been a hot minute.
Yes, I’ve read your tweets. Yep, I’ve seen your concerned DMs. But no need to worry, Spreaddy is just fine.
Actually, if I’m being honest with yous, bubs, maybe I’m not. I just…don’t really recall?
PICTURE THIS: It’s Monday night. Seahawks -3 had just cashy cashed. Cocaine Carl and my bubba from another mubba Spread Bundy are blowing up my phone. Apparently, it’s snowing and the bubs wanted to rage. I won’t lie: I bolted outside with my trusty finger-less mittens ready to catch some flakes and belting “Do You Want to Build a Snow Man?” Before eventually putting 2+2 together. Doh.
Fast forward two Hot Pockets, an over-generous misting of Axe Body Spray, and yet another barrage of angry texts from the fiery Aiofe later, and there I was with the bubs at the local Chuck E’Cheese. Turns out Bundy was pretty excited that his good friend Molly would be joining us for the night. Realizing I had left my watermelon flavored condoms at the crib and feeling a little self-conscious about the obnoxiously potent mist of Axe I was swimming in, I panicked and asked, “Are her friends hot, bubs?” That was once again before I eventually put 2+2 together.
If you hadn’t caught on by now, bubs, I’m obviously not the brightest bub in the tool shed…or however the saying goes.
Anyways, next thing I know, I’m waking up the following morning…except it’s now Friday. I’m on the floor of a bathroom stall. The bloodied tampons and used pregnancy tests scattered across the floor alert me that I just might be in the trashiest women’s bathroom I’ve ever stepped foot in (that’s a story for another day, bubs). As I stagger towards the mirror, that’s when I see it. Scribbled out on my oversized forehead in permanent marker was four words: “Oklahoma State ML BUBS.”
While I can’t tell yous what the heck happened to your boy Spready over these last few days—seriously, Cocaine Carl, fill us bubs in—I can tell you exactly why Oklahoma State is the play.
Okie State (6-2) enters Saturday with a resume that includes holding the nation’s No. 15 ranking, a victory over current Big 12 leader Iowa State and two respectable losses against Oklahoma and Texas. Yet somehow this line is under a field goal against lowly TCU (4-4). Huh? Bubba please.
Yeah, the Cowboys might be without top RBs Chuba Hubbard and LD Brown. However, third-stringer Dezmon Jackson certainly looked capable of the part last week. The junior racked up the stats in last week’s victory over Texas Tech, rushing for a career-high 235 yards and three tuddys on 35 totes. Color me surprised, bubs, if the game plan doesn’t include force feeding Jackson down the throats of a Horned Frogs run defense that has allowed five of eight opponents to top 150 yards on the ground.
But in a battle between two defenses that have a knack for getting off the field, the advantage will go to the offense that appears more capable of moving the chains. Thus far, Oklahoma State ranks 66th in the nation on third down conversion percentage (40.3%) while TCU ranks 96th, only converting 36.1% of such opportunities. Defensively, the Cowboys rank second in the nation in opponent third down conversion percentage (24.6%) with only one opponent converting at a clip above 35% and none topping 45%. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs rank 12th in the category (31.0%), but have allowed three opponents to top 35% and two to top 50% on the season.
Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games with a spread between -3 and +3 and 4-0 ATS in its last four December games. TCU is 9-24 ATS over its last 33 games and 1-4 ATS in its last five December games. Teams I have bet on after wearing the same pair of boxers five days in a row are 290-12-4 ATS historically and a remarkable 35-0 ATS in December.
We do this one for my balls who desperately need a new pair of tighty whiteys, even more than I need Jesus.
“Courage is not having the bank roll to gamble; it’s gambling when you don’t have a bank roll” -Spreaddy Roosevelt