Patrick Bamford to deliver again for Leeds
Leeds vs Everton
Goalscorer: Patrick Bamford to score anytime @ 6/5
When Leeds were promoted to the Premier League doubts were raised about Patrick Bamford’s suitability for the topflight. But the 27-year-old has silenced such critics by going from strength to strength this season. Bamford notched against Leicester at the weekend, finding the top corner with a sensational effort with an Infogol probability of just 4%.
That takes Bamford’s goal tally to 11 (11.6 xG) for the campaign and he’s keeping company with some of the league’s most elite forwards. He’s seemingly involved in almost every Leeds attacking passage of play, and that’s unsurprising, with Bamford recording 0.6 xG avg/match. He can cause Everton problems here in an exciting game at Elland Road.
Carded: Liam Cooper to be booked @ 4/1
Liam Cooper has played an essential role in the heart of Leeds’ defence this campaign and his duel against Dominic Calvert-Lewin is one to keep an eye on. With the physicality of Calvert-Lewin and Everton’s wide men to deal with, Cooper looks a big price to be booked, though. He’s already received three cautions and I don’t believe there should such a price discrepancy between him and his teammates in defence to be booked. The 4/1 available stands out as the value play.
Same Game Multi: Leeds win and over 2.5 goals @ 3.18
Marcelo Bielsa’s philosophy has caused much debate, but there’s no denying that Leeds have been an entertaining addition to the Premier League – their fixtures have seen the most expected goals (xG) in the division this term. Their 3-1 win over Leicester was an impressive performance (xG: LEI 2.1 – 2.0 LEE) and they’ll be looking for their third consecutive win against Everton.
The Toffees slumped to a seriously disappointing 2-0 defeat to Newcastle at the weekend, a result which was fair according to expected goals (xG: EVE 0.8 – 1.9 NEW). Their attacking output has worsened recently, with Everton creating 0.6 xGF per game across their last five fixtures. Furthermore, Leeds’ poor defence (1.9 xGA pg) should enable them to fashion opportunities, suggesting that we could be set for goals. Considering Everton’s recent form, though, the hosts might have too much.
Jack Grealish can provide Bertrand Traoré at Villa Park
Aston Villa vs West Ham
Goalscorer: Bertrand Traoré to score anytime @ 13/5
Despite rising through Chelsea’s youth ranks, Bertrand Traoré has only recently adapted to the demands of the Premier League. Traoré has looked excellent for Dean Smith’s side this season, offering Villa a superb outlet on that right wing, his pace and trickery a key component in their dynamic attack (0.3 xG/avg match).
He’s scored four goals (3.0 xG) across his last eight games, taking his chances efficiently when presented with opportunities in front of goal, and Jack Grealish, who has nine assists this campaign, effortlessly compliments Traoré.
After the pair linked up at home to Newcastle, they can find joy again on Wednesday night against West Ham. With the Irons likely to be wary of Grealish after their previous encounter, the Englishman can drag players out of position to provide Traoré with the service he thrives off.
Carded: Vladimír Coufal to be booked @ 21/10
The signing of Vladimír Coufal was a shrewd acquisition for West Ham but, while the Czech has already made a name for himself in the Premier League, his disciplinary record could see him in the book here. Coufal has two yellow cards this season and he’ll now be tasked with facing Villa’s electric attack, making the 21/10 for him to be booked an attractive bet.
Same Game Multi: Aston Villa win and under 2.5 goals @ 5.59
The drastic turnaround of Aston Villa’s fortunes compared to last season has been absolutely remarkable. Villa are now recording underlying numbers (2.0 xGF and 1.4 xGA pg) worthy of European contenders, with Dean Smith deserving of all the plaudits he receives. However, while they were fortunate to beat Southampton most recently (xG: SOU 2.5 – 0.8 AVL), they should return to their best here, now welcoming West Ham.
The Irons will be tricky opposition, though, enjoying an incredible run this season which has enabled them to sit in fifth position. While their underlying numbers (1.6 xGF and 1.3 xGA pg) aren’t as impressive as Villa’s, they still entitle them to be more than competitive in the hunt for a top half finish. Their defeat to Liverpool (xG: WHU 1.2 – 2.2 LIV) was their first loss in six league games and, while that defeat against the champions can be forgiven, this could be the perfect time for Villa to host David Moyes’ side.
Timo Werner can end goal drought to compound Spurs’ misery
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Goalscorer: Timo Werner to score anytime @ 6/4
Timo Werner arrived with a lofty reputation this summer and, while his Chelsea career is yet to materialise as he would have hoped, the appointment of Thomas Tuchel may benefit the German. Werner is currently enduring a 12-game league drought, last finding the back of the net against Sheffield United in November. Since then, he’s generated 3.7 xG without scoring, which is highly unlikely for a forward of his calibre.
It would be more concerning if Werner was failing to get find himself in goalscoring positions, and the 24-year-old has recorded 0.4 xG/avg match this term despite his poor form. Against a struggling Tottenham side who will likely play deep, this could be the fixture that ends his barren run.
Carded: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg to be booked @ 23/10
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg arguably encapsulates everything in a player that Jose Mourinho demands. The Dane is tenacious, aggressive and also crucially composed when receiving the ball. He’s developed a reputation for being Tottenham’s enforcer in the centre of their midfield, although he might be chasing shadows against Chelsea. This could lead to frustration and it wouldn’t be surprising to see tempers boil over. Højbjerg has received a staggering five yellows this term, so while this selection is hardly original, he seems the most likely to receive a caution.
Same Game Multi: Chelsea to win and Timo Werner to score anytime @ 3.69
Tottenham have now lost consecutive games against Liverpool and Brighton, but it was the manner of those two defeats that have sent alarm balls ringing. Spurs created an average of just 0.3 xGF per game across those fixtures, failing to create a single big chance (35%). Without the talismanic presence of Harry Kane, Tottenham lack that focal point which offers a catalyst for their ruthless counterattacks. Jose Mourinho should, once again, approach this game with an emphasis on defensive solidity, meaning they may struggle for possession against Chelsea.
Chelsea had 68% of the possession against Wolves, before recording 67% against Burnley. They conceded just 0.1 xG against the Clarets, and Tuchel’s tactics can clearly nullify the opposition. Considering this, and Chelsea’s excellent numbers in defence (1.0 xGA pg) before his arrival, the Blues should have no problem dealing with a wounded Tottenham. This game could be all one-way traffic, and Timo Werner can provide the cherry on the top, ending his drought.