Serie A Matchday 14 Odds & Predictions: Midweek Action Ahead of Winter Break

Serie A Matchday 14 will feature Atalanta's Josip Ilicic

Atalanta’s Josip Ilicic, centre, is congratulated by teammates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Champions League group D soccer match between Liverpool and Atalanta at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020. (AP Photo/Jon Super, Pool)
  • Serie A Matchday 14 will be played from December 22-23, 2020 before the winter break
  • Can AC Milan stay on top of the table, while also keeping their undefeated and scoring streaks alive?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 14 here

More midweek action comes our way this week with Italy playing their final round of matches in Serie A Matchday 14 before the league takes a break until 2021, resuming on January 3.

The round kicks off on Tuesday with lowly Crotone hosting a Parma side that’s been held off the scoresheet in three of four. Then, champions Juventus will look to stay undefeated later in the afternoon when they host Fiorentina. The Viola haven’t won a match since October 25. They’re winless in their past eight and have scored just three goals. This looks like an easy Juve win.

The action really gets rolling on Wednesday when Verona hosts Inter Milan, winners of six-straight and undefeated in nine. Then seven matches will all kick off at 2:45 pm EST Wednesday afternoon, with many having the potential to shake up the title and European races as we head into the Christmas break.

While not one of our top picks, an extra betting nugget is that Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet just once in 13 matches this season. They have though, also scored in 11/13. Their past six matches have all seen both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals. However, their opponents Sassuolo, have played to the UNDER 2.5 total in six of eight. Something has to give.

Elsewhere, after Genoa’s 2-0 loss to Benevento this weekend, head coach Rolando Maran was given the sack. In his place, comes Davide Ballardini who has previously coached with Genoa on three separate occasions.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 14 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 14 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Crotone vs Parma +175 +240 +155
Juventus vs Fiorentina -334 +450 +900
Verona vs Inter Milan +500 +300 -175
AC Milan vs Lazio +115 +280 +210
Bologna vs Atalanta +400 +320 -163
Napoli vs Torino -275 +425 +700
Roma vs Cagliari -350 +475 +900
Sampdoria vs Sassuolo +160 +260 +160
Spezia vs Genoa +115 +250 +230
Udinese vs Benevento -120 +250 +350

All odds taken Dec 21 at Bet365

Bologna vs Atalanta

Struggling Bologna, 14th/14 points, host ascending Atalanta, seventh/21 points at 2:45 pm EST on Wednesday.

Bologna allows goals. That’s a given. In 45/46 of their past league matches, their defense has been breached. They had finally snapped that terrible streak five matches ago with a 1-0 win over Crotone but then went on to lose 3-1 and 5-1, followed by 2-2 and 1-1 draws. The 1-1 draw came on the weekend away to Torino.

Bologna doesn’t always get blown away though as they’ve only allowed multiple goals in seven of 13, however, that’s still not great. They do though, often contribute to the scoring themselves, having scored in 10/13 this season. At home in Serie A, they’ve scored at least once in 29/32 matches.

Atalanta hasn’t been their usual free-wheeling selves, however, have suffered just a single defeat in their past seven. Their past three matches though have read: 3-1 (W Fiorentina), 1-1 (D Juventus) and 4-1 (W Roma).

Their win over Roma came on Sunday and looked unlikely after the first half when they fell behind early just three minutes in. But Gian Piero Gasperini’s team emerged a different team in the second half, aided but the addition of Josip Ilicic. Ilicic gave La Dea a spark which saw them score four goals, capped off by one from Ilicic himself in the 85′ minute, to go along with two assists.

The impressive win, amidst the current Papu Gomez drama, will have to inspire some confidence among the club. Against a Bologna team with plenty of problems, La Dea should be able to get the win and score a couple of goals on Serie A Matchday 14.

Pick: Atalanta to Win & Atalanta to Score Over 1.5 Goals (-110)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

AC Milan vs Lazio

AC Milan, first place 31 points, will host Lazio, eighth place 21 points, at 2:45 pm EST on Wednesday.

Milan maintained their lead atop the table with a 2-1 road win against Sassuolo this weekend.

While Lazio posted a 2-0 home win against Napoli, closing the gap between them and the European places.

Historically, these matchups are generally low-scoring. Six of the past eight in either Serie A or the Coppa Italia have gone UNDER 2.5 goals. Last season both teams won on the road; Milan 3-0 and Lazio 2-1. But the previous six all went UNDER and five of those six saw at least one team held scoreless, to go along with two 0-0 draws. That means in the past eight both teams have scored in just two of eight head-to-heads.

AC Milan is still undefeated in an incredible 25-straight Serie A matches. But on top of that, amazingly, they’ve also scored at least two goals in 15-straight.

There’s plenty on the line in this one during Serie A Matchday 14 with Milan looking to stay on top of the table heading into the winter break and Lazio aiming to crack the top six with a win of their own.

You can only lose once when betting a streak and given they’re playing a strong opponent in this one, odds for Milan to score two goals again are still reasonable. Lazio has only lost once on the road this season, but they have allowed three goals away to both Sampdoria and Torino already.

With odds of -163, you could play it safe and back a ‘Draw No Bet’ on Milan for them to keep the undefeated streak alive. I prefer the -110 odds though for them to score two goals in the match.

Pick: AC Milan Over 1.5 Teams Goals (-110)

Udinese vs Benevento

Another of seven matches to kick off at 2:45 pm EST in Serie A Matchday 14 on Wednesday is Udinese (11th) hosting Benevento (12th), both teams sitting on 15 points.

Both of these teams are currently in strong runs of form. In fact, Udinese has collected the fourth-most points in the league over the past five matches. Udinese is undefeated in six matches after drawing Cagliari 1-1 on Sunday. It was their second-straight draw. During this run, they’ve kept three clean sheets, while the UNDER has cashed at a 4-2 clip.

Newcomers Benevento have only failed to take points once in their past six themselves. They are 2-3-1 (WDL) after Sunday’s 2-0 win over Genoa. They’ve also kept three clean sheets during these six matches, while the UNDER has cashed in all six.

A few more stats that could point towards another UNDERs match: Benevento are 16th in xG at 14.9, while Udinese is even worse at 17th with 14.4 according to FBRef. Neither rank high in shots on target, with Udinese a lowly 17th and Benevento 12th.

Only one team’s matches (Verona), average fewer goals than Udinese’s 2.4 as well.

This one has all the makings of another UNDER or full-time draw. Additionally, a bet on a first-half draw could also be in play. Udinese has been drawn at the half five times and Benevento six—the most half-time draws in the league is Fiorentina and Genoa at seven each.

Pick: Half-time Draw (+110), Under 2.5 Goals (-125)

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