Serie A Round 12 Odds & Picks: Inter Milan vs Napoli Meet in Top 3, Roma Hosts Torino & More Midweek Action

Serie A Round 12 will feature Inter Milan's Romelu Lukaku facing Napoli

Inter Milan’s Romelu Lukaku, left, celebrates with his teammates after he scored his side’s first goal during a Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Bologna, at Milan’s San Siro Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • Serie A Round 12 kicks off with midweek action beginning on Tuesday, December 15, 2020
  • Top-three sides Inter Milan and Napoli look to extend win streaks, while AC Milan and Juventus hope to remain undefeated
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Round 12 here

It’s a short turnaround for several leagues this week including in Italy. With Round 11 finishing on Sunday, Serie A Round 12 is set to kick off midweek, with matches on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The weekend saw plenty of high-scoring affairs as goals were coming fast and furious, resulting in OVER 2.5 totals going 9-1 and both teams scoring in eight of ten matches. Road teams also had one of their best round of the season with five wins.

AC Milan and Napoli still remain undefeated, though Milan needed a last-minute goal to draw at home to Parma. While newcomers Crotone finally found their first win of the season in a 4-1 win over fellow promoted side Spezia. The Serie A Round 12 marquee match will see top-three teams Inter and Napoli collide on Wednesday as they hope to close the gap with leaders AC Milan.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Round 12 schedule below.

Serie A Round 12 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Udinese vs Crotone -167 +290 +475
Benevento vs Lazio +320 +280 -125
Juventus vs Atalanta -118 +290 +290
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo +140 +250 +187
Genoa vs AC Milan +650 +375 -250
Inter Milan vs Napoli +110 +260 +230
Parma vs Cagliari +125 +240 +220
Spezia vs Bologna +225 +260 +115
Verona vs Sampdoria +115 +250 +220
Roma vs Torino -250 +400 +550

All odds taken Dec 14 at Bet365

Fiorentina vs Sassuolo

One of six 2:45 pm EST matches in Serie A Round 12 on Tuesday afternoon features 17th-placed Fiorentina hosting fifth-placed Sassuolo.

Fiorentina are struggling hard in this Serie A campaign and are just three points above the relegation spots after 11 rounds of play. They entered the weekend without a win since October 25 and that streak continued as they fell 3-0 away to Atalanta. The Viola are now winless in six and have scored just a single goal in those matches. That means they’ve been held off the scoresheet in five of six.

Despite that poor record, it’s been on the road to strong opposition where they have struggled the most. They’ve lost 2-0 (Roma), 2-0 (AC Milan) and the 3-0 defeat mentioned above in that stretch. They also drew 0-0 away to Parma. The only two home matches in those six were a 1-0 defeat to Benevento and a 1-1 draw with Genoa.

So perhaps at home in Artemio Franchi Stadium, they will have confidence in taking something from a Sassuolo side which has just one goal in its past three.

The Neroverdi entered the weekend off a loss (3-0 Inter) and draw 0-0 (Roma). They were in a great spot to get back in the win column at home to Benevento and they did just that. But, it was still close. Domenico Berardi’s eighth-minute penalty would prove to be the only goal.

The task was made harder with Sassuolo being reduced to ten men in the 49′ minute, yet they were able to hold on for the three points. Considering the first half saw them hold 59-percent possession and record both of their shots on target, compared to just 31-percent in the second-half and zero shots on target, perhaps a full squad may have seen them breach the Benevento defense again. We’ll never know.

We do know that the Viola struggle to get shots or score. They rank 15th in shots on target (38) and their 11 goals only top the ten of Crotone and Genoa.

While Sassuolo is more known for their offense, this season, they currently rank fifth in goals-against only conceding 12.

Road teams have been successful in this matchup of late. Fiorentina won 2-1 on the road last season before Sassuolo won 3-1 in Florence in July. The season before, Sassuolo also won 1-0 on the road. While the teams drew 3-3 in Sassuolo in their other meeting.

While neither team is in exceptional form right now, there is little reason to back Fiorentina at this moment in Serie A Round 12. And the price on a Sassuolo win is simply too enticing. Earlier this weekend a Sassuolo win was being priced at +210 and that has now shortened to +187. If you’re looking for a little safer play, you could also back the ‘draw no bet’ at +110 on Sassuolo.

At the same time, both of these teams are 6-5 to UNDER 2.5 totals this year. The UNDER has also hit in five of six for both teams.

Pick: Sassuolo Win (+187), Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

Inter Milan vs Napoli

It’s a top-three clash when Inter hosts Napoli at 2:45 pm EST on Wednesday afternoon in Serie A Round 12 play.

It’s a very congested fixture schedule right now. Inter Milan was involved in the Champions League last Wednesday where they could only achieve a 0-0 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk. The result saw them finish bottom of Group B, sending them not only out of the Champions League but also seeing them miss out on dropping into the Europa League. They then traveled to Cagliari on Sunday and won 3-1—their fourth-straight domestic win. It takes them second in the table on 24 points and just three back of leaders AC Milan.

Napoli was in Europa League action against Real Sociedad (1-1) on Thursday. On Sunday they were home to Sampdoria where they were 2-1 winners. It was their third-straight win in the league, which puts them third overall with 23 points.

For all the firepower on both teams, surprisingly these teams have played out several low-scoring affairs in recent years. Last year in Serie A Inter won 2-0 in July when the league returned. Their previous two matches came in the Coppa Italia earlier this year which saw the teams draw 1-1 in Napoli and Napoli win 1-0 in Milan. That’s three-straight UNDERs. However, their first meeting in Serie A last season saw Inter win 3-1 on the road.

Interestingly, over the last 12 meetings in either Serie A or the Coppa Italia, nine have ended with at least one team keeping a clean sheet—twice they ended 0-0. That makes the UNDER 2.5 a winner in 9/12.

Despite this, I’m not sure I see that trend continuing this week in Serie A Round 12. Both Inter and Napoli have been some of the highest OVER cashing teams this season. Both are 8-3 to OVER 2.5 totals.

Inter is first in goals scored (29), third in expected goals (xG) at 24.7 and second in shots on target (64) according to FBRef. Inter has scored three or more goals in four-straight games but they’ve kept a clean sheet only twice in 11 matches.

While Napoli is second in goals (26), sixth in xG (18.1) and first in shots on target with 72. Napoli have scored ten goals in their past three matches and have been extremely solid defensively. They’ve kept five clean sheets on the year and only twice have allowed multiples goals in a game. That came to strong attacking sides in Sassuolo and AC Milan. Inter also fits this category and should find the scoresheet at home.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Roma vs Torino

Serie A Round 12 concludes on Thursday at 2:45 pm EST when Roma hosts Torino. The Giallorossi sit sixth in the table with 21 points, while the Toros are having a dismal campaign sitting with six points, in the relegation zone at 18th.

While they haven’t produced success in the win column, Torino has been filling OVER bettors’ pockets with plenty of cash this season. They are one of three teams to be 9-2 to OVER 2.5 totals. They are also the only team to see their matches average over four goals per game, sitting at 4.2. The next closest is 3.7.

That trend continued on the weekend when they lost 3-2 at home to Udinese, a team which previously had scored just ten goals in nine matches. Torino’s last four scorelines have read 3-2 (L), 2-1 (L), 2-2 (D) and 4-2 (L). Against top teams this season they’ve conceded four, three, four, four and two goals to Atalanta, Sassuolo, Lazio Inter and Juve respectively.

But so long as Andrea Belotti is on form, they typically will also find the scoresheet themselves as well. They’ve done so in 9/11. Belotti is fourth in the scoring race with eight goals and two assists.

A match away to Roma who have scored the division’s fourth-most goals at 24 and who are undefeated at home at 3-2-0 could be tricky. The Romans have scored 12 and conceded only four at Stadio Olimpico. They’re also coming off a 5-1 thrashing of Bologna on the weekend.

Roma’s weakness has been a backline which has conceded 16 times. That underperforms of their xGA of 12.

In their last ten meetings in either Serie A or the Coppa Italia, at least three goals have been scored seven times. At least three goals with both teams scoring has also hit in six of those contests. Their last meeting, on July 29, was a 3-2 road win for Roma.

Torino has just a single win on the year. While Roma hasn’t conceded a goal at home in four matches. All things seem to point towards a Roma win. It’s hard to make a strong case for the Toros right now. A simple ‘Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5’ bet will offer -138 odds. But I don’t see Torino winning. A Roma win where they score at least two goals themselves is priced at -175 but is rather short.

Therefore, a Roma win with both teams scoring at +150 would offer the best value in my opinion. Or a safer play of Roma to win and OVER 2.5 total goals in the match at -125 to finish out the Serie A Round 12 card.

Pick: Roma Win & Over 2.5 Total Match Goals (-125)

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