T’hanks Alot: Jaguars favorites over Dolphins Thursday night

Featured in this article:

  • The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Gardner Minshew has 6 touchdown passes in two games

A last-minute sprinkle of Fitzmagic was enough to earn many Dolphins backers a delicious backdoor cover in Miami’s loss to the Bills. They’re now 0-2 straight up and 1-1 against the spread this season ahead of their short-week matchup at Jacksonville. The second iteration of Minshew Mania may not be as compelling, but the second-year quarterback has the Jaguars offense humming through the first two weeks. Jacksonville’s 33-30 loss to the Titans dropped them to 1-1 on the season, but improved their ATS record to 2-0 after they opened as 10.5-point dogs and closed +7.

Week 3: Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Game Info
Date: September 24, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET
Stadium:TIAA Bank Field
TV Coverage: NFL Network
Opening Odds: Dolphins -1 | O/U 44
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Miami actually opened as 1-point road favorites before the line flipped to Jaguars -3. The Dolphins moneyline hovers around +130 as of Monday morning. The point total opened at 44 before a slight tick up 46 as Minshew and Fitzpatrick could light it up Thursday night. The total has gone OVER in four of Jacksonville’s past five home games.

It may be hard to believe, but Fitzmagic is real in the eyes of bettors who have seen the dolphins go 10-4 ATS over their past 14 games.

The Jaguars have covered in five consecutive September contests.

Miami Dolphins News and Notes

ryan fitzpatrick dolphins nfl

Through the first two games, the Dolphins defense has allowed the most yards per play, 7.2. Yards allowed per play, or YAPP, is typically a metric leaned on by bettors to find an edge. In this case, the edge would be in favor of the Jaguars offense over the Dolphins defense.

To add injury to insult, star cornerback Byron Jones is questionable for Thursday night due to a groin injury suffered during the loss to the Bills. Unless you’re on Team Tank and hope the Dolphins earn the No. 1 Draft pick and draft Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson, the timing couldn’t be worse. Though it’s never a good time to lose a star pass defender, and especially this week with the Jaguars passing game clicking on all cylinders, the Dolphins pass defense could be exploited once more. Josh Allen – known more for his rushing ability to-date – passed for a career-high 417 and four touchdowns in his win over Miami.

If you’re looking for a bright spot in the Dolphins 0-2 start, the team scored 28 points against the Bills defense, didn’t turn the ball over, only committed three penalties, and won time of possession. Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s offense has scored a touchdown on 57% of their red zone trips. We know this team is flawed and in the middle of a rebuild, but they competed at New England Week 1 and came up just short Week 2. At the end of the day, it typically comes down to which version of Fitzpatrick you get, the magic or the mayhem.

Jacksonville Jaguars News and Notes

After upsetting the Colts Week 1 and taking last winter’s AFC runners-up down to the wire Week 2, perhaps the reports of the Jaguars demise were greatly exaggerated. Remember, just a few weeks ago, after parting ways with Leonard Fournette, this was the favorite to finish with the league’s worst record and, in turn, earn that No. 1 Draft pick next spring.

Instead, Gardner Minshew is making the most of his second NFL life. The mustached maven has thrown six touchdowns and two interceptions through the first two weeks. This is quite the feat when you consider Jacksonville elected to pair Minshew with free agent running back James Robinson in the backfield this season. To his credit, Robinson shredded Miami last weekend for 102 yards on 16 carries, 6.4 yards per rush.

The Jaguars ability to keep drives alive has, indeed, helped them thrive in the early going. Minshew’s offense has converted 15 of their first 24 third downs, or 62.5% of them, to lead the league.

On the flip side, one of Minshew’s two interceptions against the Titans cost the Jaguars seven points, which ended up being the difference between a big road win and loss.

Though Miami’s defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per play, the Jaguars defense isn’t far behind at 6.2. With both defenses boasting sloppy resumes, the point total comes into focus moreso than the point spread.

Betting Pick: OVER 46

On the short week, this is one of those games and point spreads I’m comfortable fading. The Jaguars lit up the scoreboard at Tennessee against a decent Titans defense, while the Dolphins offense scored 28 points against arguably a top three defense. Root for a high-scoring affair and let some minnows chase the point spread.

Check out our expert NFL betting guide if you want to learn more about How to Bet on Week 3 of the NFL or head right to our favorite online sportsbook review page and find the right site for you!

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