Hey guys, sorry if this has been asked but I checked the wiki and my searches didn’t yield anything. Here’s my scenario that I know is too good to be true, but I can’t find why. I know I’m not smarter than the house and I’m not a very experienced better so I’m hoping you guys can help with some insight.
If I am betting on winning margins for a team that is double-digit favorites, say the pats this week at -10, and I bet 2units on each spread of 1-6, 7-12, and 13-18. If any of those hit, I would get a pay out of approximately 9 units. Effectively being a 3/2 pay out (win-total bets). These implied odds would be around -165 plus or minus. it looks like double-digit favorites win outright closer to 75% of the time, which should be a -300 odds.
What am I missing? Clearly if the favorites lose I would lose all 3 bets, but that only seems to happen an average of 25% of the time. I would also lose if it was a blow out and they won by more than the ranges I pick. Is there not a lot of value in betting this way as the actual odds (~75% winning) and significantly better than the implied/paid odds?!